4-Xtra Extreme Value Modelling
Risk management platform that accurately predicts multivariate extreme events using nonstationary time-series data
About this app
Forecasting rare but probable extreme events, is the single biggest challenge for science and the whole of society. Unwanted extreme scenarios are ubiquitous across the board, be it environmental management where air quality, storms, floods, and climate change come into consideration or pandemic outbreaks, complex systems failures must be considered.
Traditional risk models are built with a view on modelling and predicting “typical” scenarios, relying on the extrapolation of previously observed patterns and trends. Such approaches struggle to adapt to dynamic, fast varying environments.
Moreover, they often fail to capture unusual, extreme features and outcomes, some of which may have never been observed in the past.
Key Benefits:
- Accurately predicts multivariate extreme values in nonstationary time-series
- Adaptable business configurations to solve specific industry needs
- Available as Software-as-a-Service (SaaS)
What differentiates the 4-Xtra models:
- 6-7 times more accurate (based upon Bayes factor scale)
- Faster and more efficient - allows the processing of streamed data
Machine learning that automatically adjusts to threshold changes - User-defined extreme value domain of interest, trading off between accuracy and credibility
